How To Select Lesser Of The Evils In An Election?

In the elections coming up everywhere, most people would be choosing lesser of the evils, rather than choosing best of the cream. 

"Lesser of the evils" actually involves the process of elimination. Try this method and see if it works.

1. Select the one thing that matters the most to you in this election. 

2. Then ask the question, "Which candidate(s) can NEVER satisfy this criteria?". 

3. Eliminate those candidates.

Repeat 1 to 3 for the next important thing that matters to you. Continue till you end up with just one candidate.

Take only one criteria at a time. You should eliminate a candidate only if you are sure that he/she cannot satisfy your criteria. If you are not sure, don't eliminate them, take them to the next round.

The criteria and the decision whether to eliminate or not will differ from person to person. But, it will give you a candidate who you can tolerate! Try it!

Tamil Nadu - What do the numbers say?

With the state election set to take place on May 16, 2016 - election speeches in Tamil Nadu (India) are spiked with rhetoric, lies, and hatred. So, out of curiosity, I collected data to get an objective view of Tamil Nadu's economy.

How well has Tamil Nadu fared in the past 5 years (2011-16)?

TN ranks 8th in Human Development Index (HDI), an index measured on 3 factors - income, education, and health - a reflection of the standard of living. The top 3 are Kerala, Delhi, and HP (Source: Institute of Applied Manpower Research).

In Agriculture, TN was the largest food grain producer in India in 2012, producing 102 lakh metric tonnes. When DMK left, it was 82 LMT. Food grain production reached 128 LMT in 2015 and the government has set an even higher target of 147 LMT for 2016. As per India Today's Best of States report, TN comes next only to Maharashtra in food grain production at 1,626,000 tonnes per sq km.

When it comes to Industrial growth, TN was the 2nd most industrialized state in early 2015 (Source: Business Standard); Maharashtra and Gujarat were at 1st and 3rd positions respectively. In 2014, its growth rate of 3.53% in Manufacturing sector surpassed the national average of 0.71%.

What about debt? With a debt of roughly 211 crores, TN is the 6th largest debtor, next to Maharashtra, UP, WB, AP, and Gujarat. However, debt alone doesn't give the full picture of an economy. If the borrowed debt is put into good investment, it is beneficial. So, a true picture is given by the (Debt / State GDP) ratio; the lower the ratio the better. TN's Debt / GSDP is 20%; lower than national average of 21.2%, indicating that there is economic growth in parallel with rising liability.

So, where did TN under-perform?

Power sector? While the CM announced in mid 2015 that the state had then met its power demand of 13,000 MW per day, it is yet to be widely acknowledged. The Adani group's investment on solar power generation is another ongoing project of interest.

Although the government had the Global Investors meet in 2015 with a lot of fanfare, TN has been slipping down in converting proposed investments to actual investments (Source: TOI, March'16). In 2015, out of 19.5 Crores proposed, only 5.01 Crores materialized (Source: Dep of Industrial Policy & Promotion). There are also complaints of less transparency.

And bad news to manufacturing sector: some companies are moving out of TN and expanding elsewhere, like Ford, ISuzu, and Saint-Gobain.

When Jayalalitha was not the CM (Sep'14 - Apr'15), the state's progress almost stalled. This sort of risk is bad for any investment.

So, the question is: who can perform better than this? 

No matter who you vote for, make sure that your candidate can beat these numbers! At the end of the day, it is numbers that speak the truth.

The Democracy We Need

WHEN corrupt politicians and fanatics get re-elected to power election after election, we often wonder how our people could be so blind. When educated, patriotic youngsters contest and lose their deposit - we are even more puzzled. We see politicians shed crocodile tears and talk absolute non-sense in public - and yet the mob goes crazy behind them. When free bags of rice and free TV sets are announced, why is it that our people never wake up and understand that nothing comes free of cost? Instead of laughing at the stupidity of their leaders, why do party workers blindly do anything - even to the extent of self immolating?

The reason, of course, is multi-fold. Politicians are able to cheat majority of the public quite easily. It shows that most of our people aren't smart enough to take a good decision about our politicians. It can also mean that the good decision-makers (good voters) are out-numbered by the bad decision-makers (bad voters). Here, "good" and "bad" refer to the quality of their voting decision (not their character).

Some have suggested that to refine our democracy we need to put restrictions on the eligibility to contest elections. They suggest that we prohibit criminals from contesting, and pave way for clean educated people to contest. The problem with this approach is, we never know how "clean" a person would be after coming to power. Most scandals today are done by educated people. Most fanatics today are great orators. Criminal intent can creep inside even the best educated minds, and when it combines with intelligence it makes a ruthless deadly combination. So, while it is good to have such restrictions on contesting elections (and I support such a restriction), they do not solve the problem completely.

The best solution is to give the right of decision-making (voting) in the right hands. That is, we should have more of good voters and less of bad voters.

Today, one of the major drawbacks of democracy is that it provides equal voting rights to everyone - irrespective of their ability to take a sound decision. The problem is magnified in India since a vast majority are still illiterates. Being an illiterate, they have limited access to information, poor capability to understand various issues, and they lack the ability to think objectively weighing the pros and cons of various policies of political parties.

Decision making cannot rest with people who do not qualify as good decision makers. To make a good decision, not just in casting votes, but in any situation, a person needs the following. Those who have these qualify as good decision makers.

1. Inputs about the problem (What information do we have?)

2. Knowledge to understand, comprehend and appreciate the problem (What exactly are the problems facing us today?)

3. Knowledge to envision what is best for all the stakeholders involved in the long-run (What is our nation's goal?)

4. Skill to objectively weigh the pros and cons of available options and pick the most suited one (How best to reach our goal?)

Not everyone possesses these skills. We should enforce voting restrictions and allow only those people who have the high probability of possessing such skills.

The vote cast by an illiterate cannot be treated the same as the vote cast by an eminent person like Dr. Abdul Kalam or Mr. Narayana Murthy. The weightage of their votes is definitely not same. However, our current system treats them both same. By doing so, we fail to give due credit to the voice of the qualified decision-makers (good voters), and instead we mix them with the unqualified ones and merely take the majority - which by no means gives a good result.

We should attach weightage to each person's vote based on his eligibility. So, how does a person get his weightage? I've given few suggestions. This is of course not a definite list, but merely a suggested approach.

Votes of following people deserve a higher weightage:

1. Educated people. The higher the education, the higher is the weightage.

2. Tax payers, as they have a higher say in the Govt spending.

3. Army personnels, due to the patriotic nature of their work.

4. Civil service officials (IAS, IPS, etc).

5. National award winners in fields of science, technology, arts, economics, law, defence, sports, etc.

6. Judges of Courts.

Following people should be given lesser or minimum weightage:

1. Uneducated or not sufficiently educated (eg. Secondary education should be a minimum requirement to qualify for voting)

2. Non Tax Payers

3. People with past criminal history (with each crime the weightage should be reduced, and it should only be restored subject to conditions)

Both the above lists aren't exhaustive; they can be expanded further. I've just tried to explain the rational behind this approach. With the "Unique Identification" system underway in India (by Mr. Nandan Nilekani) - it would be possible to track these criteria in a central database.

So, what difference would this make?

As per World Bank Survey in 2007, less than 40% of people in India enroll for Secondary education. Even if we assume the trend to be rising, it would be about 40% today. So, if we enforce that secondary education is mandatory for voting, then only 40% of the population would vote. And among this 40%, there would be weightage differences based on their further eligibility. Do the math, and you would understand that it makes a big difference. The probability of making a right decision increases enormously. There might be smart people among illiterates who might miss the chance to vote, but these are exceptional cases and hence cannot be considered when making regulations.

Bottomline: If you want to choose your ruler, go to school first.

This could be a motivation to complete atleast secondary education. This system places emphasis on education and honours those who've sweated their way to the top. Political parties would shut down their circus shows and start thinking for a change. They know that their audience is far smarter than before now. They can't be easily cheated - just by writing poems or giving free stuff or making rhetoric speeches. Politicians would be forced to show results. As more and more people get educated and become 'good voters', it would be even harder for rulers to fool around.

Einstein was right when he said, "You can never solve a problem on the level on which it was created". Do share your views on this topic.

The Curious Case of Velupillai Prabhakaran

OTHER than Vaiko, by now everyone believes that Prabhakaran is dead. Vaiko needs a "Prabhakaran" to continue his passionate support for Eelam; so we can understand his plight. I sympathize the sorry state of Vaiko - he lost election from his own constituency; he said there will be blood bath if Prabhakaran died but no such thing happened; and he spent days and nights supporting and agitating for LTTE but the people rejected all this drama. So, let us spare him further agony.

Prabhakaran was once an icon of courage and valor among Tamil youth. There was a time when I admired the military operations he conducted - bringing the Lankan army to his feet.

When he took up arms to fight Lankan oppression in 1980s, he had the blessing of India. Mrs.Indira Gandhi supported and encouraged the LTTE. They were allowed to use TN as training grounds. Back then, nobody was concerned about the violent methods LTTE used. Maybe it was necessary at that point of time to stop Lankan genocide against Tamils.

Rajiv Gandhi's initiative to bring a political settlement to the crisis gave rise to the Indo Lankan pact of 1987. I believe, he truly intended to resolve the conflict amicably. The LTTE initially agreed to it reluctantly. They even started surrendering their arms to the IPKF. Soon, disagreements broke and LTTE joined hands with Srilanka and drove our IPKF out, saying "Lankans and Tamils are brothers ! Who is India to interfere !". Thus, the LTTE stalled the headway made in this political settlement. If LTTE had co-operated, India could've pressurized the Lankan Govt to act according to the pact and agree for a devolution of power to Tamils.

But, Vellupillai Prabhakaran had a different dream about Tamil Eelam. He wanted a Tamil nation carved out of the island where he and his associates can be the sole rulers in an autocratic setup. He never believed in democracy. To achieve this dream, he was ready for any proportion of bloodbath - no matter whose blood it was - Tamils or Sinhalese or Indians or whoever. Sadly, this was not what Tamils wanted.

Slowly, he turned his organization from a liberation movement into a blood thirsty terrorist movement - assassinating anyone who disagreed with him - including our former PM. His acts of crime overshadowed the Tamil cause for which he once started fighting. More than 32 countries banned LTTE, and he was in the "Wanted" list of law-enforcement agencies worldwide like Interpol, CBI, and FBI.

Rajiv's assassination was not only a deadly crime, but it was a stupid move by the LTTE. They lost their only supporter in this region - India.

After May 21st 1991, India understood the consequences of doing business with a guerilla group. All these years, we never thought the LTTE would harm us; it was after all our foster kid that grew with our support. But now, our own security was at stake. We realized that this was not a group we should've associated with from the very beginning! They have proved to be ruthless killers. If we had really cared about Lankan Tamils, we should have interfered more directly into the matter and pressurized SL, instead of supporting and supplying arms to these guerilla rebels. India as a nation should have stepped in. But instead, we made friends with the wrong group.

It is a shame that the LTTE is still portrayed by some as representatives of Tamils in SL. They lost that identity long back. They have killed Tamil leaders and Tamil citizens without any mercy. A recent BBC video showed LTTE herding Tamil civilians with guns and firing at those who were trying to escape. They deliberately squashed all attempts for a political settlement. They were nothing but a group of fanatics who fought for the personal cause of a rogue leader called Prabhakaran. They strayed away from their liberation path a long time ago.

It is good they were silenced once and for all. Congratulations to the Lankan President for standing firm amidst so many pressures. But, we do not know what he has in mind after this. Would he be true to his words and give equal rights to Tamils? We don't know. But, he sure knows that the international community is watching. India should ensure that justice is done for Tamils there. It is a good time to remind Srilanka of the Indo Lankan pact.

As far as people like Vaiko and Ramadoss are concerned, they can continue to joke around like clowns; it helps to keep the political scene entertaining.

"Fire Bath" - The Great Tamil Culture

Nowadays, you hear many incidents of Tamilians self-immolating themselves. This "fire bath" sounds like a good method, given the fact that water scarcity is a century-old issue in TN. They should also invent "fire soap", "fire shampoo", "fire body wash", etc. After all, Tamilians are known for their cleanliness. I wonder why the big leaders never self-immolate themselves, but merely praise and pay homage to those who die from it. Wouldn't it be a great show if all Tamil leaders tried self-immolating themselves in the middle of the road, and NDTV covers the event live - and Barkha Dutt runs round and round the scene giving live commentary ! Wow, what a scene to imagine !

Instead of rubbishing such stupid acts, Tamil leaders stand in queue and pay homage to these self-immolators. What a shame ! Taking one's own life is unlawful. It is a sin. It is a coward's act. Leaving all your dependent family members on the road and killing yourself - is the worst form of stupidity. And this is what Tamil leaders praise and support. Karunanidhi would write poems for them; Vaiko might tear off his shirt and shout slogans for them; and Ramdoss might go on an"indefinite" hunger strike for 8 hours (and drink orange juice in the end)!

Wow, what a Tamil Culture ! If anyone opposes this, he would be termed anti-Tamil, anti-Eelam, and many more "anti"s. So, why take risk ! Let me also try writing a poem for all these fire bathers.

It is to be noted that, the only leader who didn't praise these cowardly acts is Jayalalitha. Hats off to her. (I am no ADMK supporter)

Wake Up Call to Dr. Manmohan Singh

Someone has to tell Dr. Manmohan Singh to close that Economics book he is reading, and try reading "How to become an effective leader in 21 days" or something of that sort. Mr. Singh is definitely a nice man, a scholar, a man with clean hands, etc etc. But, all these traits can only make up a College Professor or a lab scientist or an Economist or whatever - but definitely not a LEADER.

India needs a leader, who is courageous, who can take stern decisions without fear, who can rally the masses behind him, who can command and order - and who can send a clear signal to terrorists that he is a roaring lion and not a meowing kitten. We are in a time when we don't need Manmohans, but rather need Sardar Patels, Churchills and Indira Gandhis.

Shivraj Patil was glued to his chair - even after the entire nation gave him the Most Inefficient Home Minister award. It needed a massacre like the one that happened in Mumbai to finally show him the way out. No idea how Mr. Chidambaram would perform, but he would obviously be better than Mr. Patil (looking at the pathetic track record of Mr. Patil). But, a lot more is expected from Mr. Chidambaram. A lot lot more.

We definitely need a separate law to deal with crimes of terrorism. Terrorists cannot be treated the same way like other criminals. They should be shown zero-tolerance and the harshest of punishments, in addition to curbing privileges like appeals, bails, etc. Well, what if this law is misused ? In times like this, when the security of a whole nation is at stake, we cannot be handicapped by the fear of misuse. We can try to minimize misuse, that's all we can do. We have to definitely make some sacrifices - because this "terrorism cancer" has gone to the last stages. (FYI, any criminal law is prone to misuse !)

In Tamil Nadu, we have a separate form of pro-terrorism - in the name of "Saving Lankan Tamils". Why was Vaiko released from prison even after he openly supported LTTE? People like Vaiko should be tried under the same anti-terrorism law that is applied to terrorists. Either he should face the same fate of terrorists, or should be asked to leave the country for good. He can settle in Kilinochchi, play "kabadi" with Prabhakaran, and live happily ever after. Why bother India !

In a few months, the Mumbai attacks will be forgotten. NDTV will start covering some other scandal. The only-captured terrorist may sit in jail and enjoy meals 3 times a day (with our tax money). Or who knows, he may appeal and appeal, and get bail, and have dinner in Taj. Some human rights group may actually demand for his release (because achooo...he was brutally beaten by interrogators). All this...until finally... one more attack comes. This is the protocol we have been following these years.

Let's see if it changes.